Nikon release plan always considers it strictly confidential, but on past experience, below are our predictions for the year 2009. Make note of the weak economy and could slow the decline in sales of Nikon's release schedule, but they are also in a battle for market share with Canon, which puts pressure on them in the other direction, the 50D (not exactly set the world on fire , but the 5D Mark II is still a lot of) attention:
Pro Bodies:
NikonD3
The D3 will be 2 years before the end of the year, but it is still the low light king (and on past experience, it is based mostly 3-4 years between major updates per body). Street prices for the D3 have dropped the $ 4k mark to do so Nikon has something to get back the price point up to $ 5k around the brand, and there is room for improving the D3. We predict (a D3h or perhaps D3s) release, which are a D3 with the following features:
The 2GB bufferUpgrade that you can currently get to be standard for the D3.
The newer, improved EXPEED processors from the D3x a small improvement in yield and IQ slightly extending the already impressive battery life.
Since the D3 is primarily a tool photojournalists, the ability to capture video (1080p) would be extremely useful in the field, however, that video encoding hardware and microphones adding means, so that must be deferred to D4. It is a big plus point to some Segment of the market if it can upgrade per Nikon in for it.
If video is included, where appropriate, a slightly better sensor (as when the D90 into being launched on the basis of the D300 sensor)
Misc. small features / tweaks.
Priced at $ 5k, maybe $ 5.5k if video is included in the price.
Nikon D3x
Other than firmware versions, we expect this camera to remain unchanged, albeit with a steady fall in prices during the year.
Prosumer Bodies:
> Nikon D400
The D300 hits its second birthday at the end of 2009, before his second birthday, we expect that the D400 will be released hits. We expect the following:
Slight increase in megapixels - maybe 14MP with the same or slightly better ISO capabilities than the D300.
A better dynamics than the D300 (since the D90 has demonstrated that they add to improve it, a different year sensor development) into the equation.
Video is a must, probably at 1080p.
What we want:Retain compatibility with the MB-D10, and please attach a larger buffer - that is the Nikon DSLR of choice for most pro telephoto users, the larger buffer would be useful.
Price must be under $ 2k.
Nikon D700x / Nikon D800
Based on recent history, Nikon puts new sensors into the highest end of the first place, it is that the sensor will be later at the next level down body somewhere around 9 months, give or take a few months. This would meanThe D3x sensor in a D700-style body seems (D700x or D800) sometime in the summer of 2009. There is also strong pressure from Sony (the A900) and Canon (with the 5D Mark II) in this middle range full-frame space, so bring a competitive product on the market here would be a very strong appeal. However, this leads to some basic questions:
The D3x is little more than a D3 with a new sensor, even at current street prices, costs nearly $ 4k more, that a lot ofPremium for a sensor. Applying the same logic to the new camera, if it with a similar price margin above the D700, that would put them at $ 6k, which would greatly restrict their market and not in the same market space as Canon and Sony have now off. Realistically, as has a competitor, the camera, their prices not be that far over the Canon and Sony - somewhere in the $ 3,000 to $ 3,500 range. If they price it is at $ 4k, then they will lose a large part of the potential market.
If they doPrice it at $ 4k or less, that really hits D3x (who needs weather sealing and a longer battery life in the studio?)
To add video or record on video. To win in competition with Canon and market share, they must be able to record on video. But if they add a video that the D3x will be made with their premium price even harder.
This is a difficult for Nikon, there is clearly a need for a cheaper version of the D3x, they have to protect their market share in the face of the 5D Mark II and A900, butThe decision on the correct price will be the biggest challenge. Our guess is we will see the D3x sensor in a bit By the middle of the year.
Consumer models:
Nikon D40 Replacement
We expect that this early 2009, probably with a 10.2MP sensor from the D200/D80/D60 lines.
Nikon D60 Replacement
A replacement for the Nikon D60 is available towards the end of 2009, with the sensor on the D90, perhapsVideo.
Nikon D90 update
Nikon D90 An update is available in the second half of the year - perhaps the D90s is, of basically the same camera but with a much improved video capabilities (auto-focus, improved monitoring of exposure, maybe even 1080p). This would also pave the way for a D60 with 720p.
Lenses:
This is a difficult to predict, but:
70-200 f2.8 VR Update
This lens takes on particularly well and DXFilm cameras, but users reported problems on EDGE FX. Nikon's pro zooms are usually every six years or so, then this lens is due. Moving with the D3x outside and to the limits of performances of more lenses can be used as the D3, it always makes a new version of this lens even more important.
Update with 85 f1.4 AF-S
A logical choice, which can be updated in the light of the next 50mm F1.4 AF-S, which has just been released.
Update with 80-400mmAF-S
This amazingly versatile lens is in a price range if they can appeal to the D90 and D60 owners, plus it has concentrated a good reputation as slow, so would be a good candidate.
With a slow economy, added dark lenses, does not make less sense as profitable as in previous years. Nikon lenses will probably be decided that either (a) sell in large quantities in order to re-design / retrofitting costs faster, or ( b) that the sale of the D3x supportand other important facilities. If you $ 8k for the job, the rates are improving, the lenses available to them again.
Overall, given the economy, we expect that fewer lenses in 2009, published as seen in 2008, but suspect, Nikon will keep their bodies ticking over development for competitive reasons. We will try later in the year to see how we did.
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